A New Pool Suggest Trump Is Ahead Of Joe Biden
As Democratic former vice president, Joe Biden has faded. Republican President Donald Trump has taken over the lead in Iowa, a new Des Moines Register / Mediacom Iowa Poll shows just days before Election Day.
The President now leads 48 per cent to 41 per cent, by seven percentage points over Biden. Three per cent say they’re going to vote for someone else, 2 per cent aren’t sure and 5 per cent don’t want to say who they’re going to vote for.
The candidates were tied at 47 per cent to 47 per cent in September’s Iowa Poll.
Selzer & Co. of Des Moines conducted the poll of 814 likely Iowa voters from Oct. 26-29. It has a plus or minus 3.4 percentage point error margin.
J. Selzer & Co. president Ann Selzer said that while men are more likely to support Trump and women to support Biden, the gender gap has narrowed and independents, a category he gained in 2016, has returned to support the president.
“The president is holding demographic groups that he won in Iowa four years ago, and that would give someone a certain level of comfort with their standing,” she said. “There’s a consistent story in 2020 to what happened in 2016.”
But, she said, “Neither candidate hits 50%, so there’s still some play here.”
In 2016, Trump won Iowa by 9.4 percentage points, but his chances of a repeat victory here in 2020 seem to be in question in recent polls. Before Biden climbed into the September tie, the June Iowa Poll illustrated Trump leading by just one percentage point.
Donald Trump Ahead Of Joe Biden Since March
Since March 2020, likely voters in Iowa have been asked four times as to which candidate they will vote for in the presidential election. In the most recent edition.
Forty-eight per cent of likely voters say they’re going to vote for Donald Trump, 41 per cent say they’re going to vote for Joe Biden, 3 per cent say they’re going to vote for someone else, 2 per cent say they’re not sure, and 5 per cent have already voted, but don’t want to say they’re going to vote for someone else.
In Iowa, likely voters have been asked four times since March 2020 about which candidate they will vote for in the presidential election. In the new edition,
48% of likely voters say they’re going to vote for Donald Trump, 41% say they’re going to vote for Joe Biden, 3% say they’re going to vote for someone else, 2% say they’re not sure, and 5% say they are going to vote for someone else, but don’t want to say they’re going to vote for anyone else.
Biden leads 55 per cent to 32 per cent for those who have already voted. And Trump leads 64 per cent to 28 per cent for those who have yet to vote.
Trump is winning back independents, and Biden loses the woman vote.
Within their parties, both candidates mostly hold on to voters. Ninety-three per cent of Democrats, along with 4 per cent of self-described Republicans, favour Biden. And 89 per cent of Republicans, along with 2 per cent of Democrats, support Trump.
Within their parties, both candidates mainly hold on to voters. Ninety-three per cent of Democrats, along with 4 per cent of self-described Republicans, favour Biden. And 89 per cent of Republicans, along with 2 per cent of Democrats, support Trump.
But with those who identify as independents, Trump has recovered an edge, a bloc crucial to his Iowa 2016 victory. Independent voters preferred Trump 51 per cent to 38 per cent over Democrat Hillary Clinton that year, according to National Election Pool exit polls released by CNN.
Biden led 50 per cent to 38 per cent of independents in the Register’s September Iowa Poll. But Trump is winning them back today, showing 49 per cent to 35 per cent.
“I think that the key to what’s happening with President Trump is that he is leading with independents,” Selzer said. “That is a group that in Iowa in our September poll looked like it was swinging to Joe Biden, and it’s come back to be a Trump asset.”
Biden has lost ground with women, in addition to fading with independents. He kept a 20-point lead among women in September, balancing Trump’s 21-point lead among men. But today, Biden’s women’s lead has fallen to 9 percentage points, from 50 to 41 per cent.
The article was first published in Des Moines Register and Mediacom.